Trump Weighs Nuclear Arms Expansion After New START

With the New START treaty officially expiring on February 5, 2026, the Trump administration is actively considering significant expansions to the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the potential resumption of underground nuclear testing for the first time since 1992. This development marks a major shift in U.S. nuclear policy, raising alarms about a possible new arms race involving the United States, Russia, and China.

Key Details from Administration Statements

President Trump and senior officials have signaled openness to increasing the number of deployed nuclear warheads, which has remained capped under New START at around 1,550 strategic warheads per side. Trump has previously expressed interest in resuming nuclear tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing concerns over their modernization programs and alleged treaty violations.

• Deployment Increases: Officials indicate the U.S. could exceed previous limits if no new accord is reached, potentially adding hundreds of warheads. This would reverse post-Cold War reductions and mark the first major buildup since the Reagan era.
• Underground Testing: Discussions include limited “subcritical” or full-yield tests to certify aging warheads or develop new designs. The last U.S. underground test occurred in 1992 under President George H.W. Bush.
• Strategic Rationale: Administration sources frame these options as leverage to force negotiations with Russia and China for a broader, multilateral arms control deal. Trump has described the expiration as freeing the U.S. from “unfair restraints” while adversaries advance.

Broader Context and International Reactions

The expiration of New START—the last major U.S.-Russia nuclear arms treaty—eliminates mutual inspections and limits, heightening risks of miscalculation. Russia has suspended participation since 2023 but claims it still adheres to caps; China continues expanding its arsenal without treaty constraints.

• Experts warn this could spark a costly, dangerous three-way arms race, with estimates of trillions in added spending over decades.
• Arms control advocates, including former officials and groups like the Arms Control Association, urge immediate talks to prevent escalation.
• Bipartisan congressional voices (e.g., Sen. Ed Markey pushing for recommitment to arms control) have called on the administration to prioritize diplomacy over buildup.

Implications for Americans

A nuclear expansion could impact defense budgets, diverting funds from domestic priorities like healthcare or infrastructure. It also raises public safety concerns tied to testing (environmental/radiation risks if resumed) and global stability amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific.

This story is based on reports from The New York Times, PBS NewsHour, The Berkshire Edge (citing Sen. Markey), and other verified sources as of February 11, 2026. The situation remains fluid, with no final decisions announced—official statements may evolve. For the latest, refer to White House briefings, State Department updates, or congressional records. This overview prioritizes factual reporting from mainstream outlets for balance and trustworthiness. Stay informed on this critical national security issue.

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